Unit 13
　　Sales forecasts
　　Intentions and predictions
　　1. Listening
　　A Sales Director presents the sales targets for four products. As you listen, match the graphs with the model numbers of the products. Models: A1456, B2456, C3456, D4456
　　Graph 1
　　Sales target: Model _________
　　请见附图13-1
　　Graph 2
　　Sales target: Model _________
　　请见附图13-2
　　Graph 3
　　Sales target: Model _________
　　请见附图13-3
　　Graph 4
　　Sales target: Model _________
　　请见附图13-4
　　Listening Task
　　Right, let’s move on to targets for next year and out plans over the next five years.
　　As you sow earlier, sales of the A 1456 have been falling for some time and last year were only 250000. We expect sales will be roughly the same next year, although we will be starting a large-scale promotion in March. If this is successful, perhaps we can boost sales to 300000. Still, I prefer to keep our forecast figure at 250000.
　　Now, we come to the B 2456. We don’t expect sales will be quite as high as last year as we are not going to push this product this year. My view is that sales should reach 450000. This may be a little optimistic for a product which is now six years old, but I think we should be able to achieve it.
　　We are sure the sales of C3456 will start to recover. Indeed, sales may go as high as 650000 next year. However, I have set the target slightly lower, at 600000.
　　Now, let’s look at our medium-term plans. Next year we intend to launch our new product- the D4456- and we are sure sales will take off very quickly. We estimate first year sales figures at 200000 and we hope that within three years the D4456 will replace the A1456. We intend to stop production on the A1456 within five years.
　　Finally, R and D are working on a new medium-range product and they hope to have this ready in two years’ time, so we could be launching it within three or four years.
　　2. Presentation
　　When we talk about the future, we can do so either personally or impersonally. We can also indicate the degree of probability in terms of:
　　# certainty
　　# probability
　　# possibility
　　Now look at the language used in the Listening section.
　　请见附图2
　　3. Controlled practice
　　Use the language in the Presentation section to change these sentences into the equivalent personal or impersonal form. The first one has been done for you.
　　1. Sales of B2456 will probably reach their target.
　　We expect/think sales of B2456 will reach their target (personal form)
　　2. We hope sales of A1456 will be above target.
　　___________________________________________ (personal form)
　　3. We intend to launch the D 4456 next year.
　　__________________________________________ (personal form)
　　4. We are sure that C3456 sales will reach their target.
　　_________________________________________ (personal form)
　　5. The D 4456 should replace he A 1456.
　　__________________________________________ (personal form)
　　6. We hope the new medium-range product will be ready in two years’ time.
　　___________________________________________ (personal form)
　　7. The sales team intend to carry out a large-scale promotion campaign.
　　___________________________________________ (personal form)
　　8. Total sales could be around ?1250000 next year.
　　____________________________________________ (personal form)
　　9. We think the campaign will be successful.
　　_____________________________________________(personal form)
　　10. The R&D department hope to have the product ready in five years’ time.
　　_____________________________________________ (personal form)
　　课文注释及词汇讲解
　　* roughly 粗略地
　　eg. We expect sales will be roughly the same next year.
　　我们预计明年的销售量与今年大致相同。
　　Roughly speaking there is an upward trend in the marker.
　　大致说来，市场行情有上升的趋势。
　　* start a large-scale promotion 开展大规模的促销活动
　　scale 规模
　　on a large/small scale 以大/小规模
　　* boost 促进，提高
　　eg. We an boost sales to 300000.
　　我们可以将销量提高到300000。
　　Price are boosted because of shortage of raw materials.
　　因原材料短缺，价格提高了。
　　* forecast 预报，预示
　　eg. forecast figures 预计的数目

　　weather forecast 天气预报
　　It is difficult to forecast stock market trends.
　　股票市场趋势很难预测。
　　* prefer...to... 比起……来更喜欢……
　　prefer to do 更愿（做某事）
　　eg. I prefer to keep our forecast figures at 250000.
　　我更倾向于将预计的数目定为250000。
　　Customers in this area prefer goods of high quality, even if prices are higher.
　　即使价格较高，这个地区的顾客也更喜欢高质量的产品。
　　* push 推进，推销
　　eg. push a product 推销产品
　　push one’s business 推进业务
　　* My view is that ...= In my opinion, ...我的观点是……
　　eg. My view is that we can capture a larger market share by lowering the prices.
　　我认为我们可以通过降低价格来夺得更大的市场份额。
　　* optimistic 乐观的，乐天派的。
　　* set target 定目标
　　eg. I have set the target slightly lower.
　　我将目标定得略低了一点儿。
　　* recover 恢复
　　eg. We are sure the sales of C 3456 will start to recover.
　　我们确信C3456 产品的销售将渐渐恢复常态。
　　Economy has recovered from depression.
　　经济已从萧条状态中复苏过来。
　　* take off 起飞，快速增长
　　eg. China’s economy is taking off.
　　中国的经济正在腾飞。
　　We estimate that sales will take off quickly.
　　* intend 打算
　　intend to do sth. 打算做某事
　　eg. We intend to stop production on A1456 within five years.
　　我们打算在五年内停止生产A1456型产品。
　　* carry out 执行，实施
　　eg. A large-scale promotion is going to e carried out by the sales team.
　　销售人员将进行大规模的促销行动。
　　* calendar 日历
　　* filing cabinet 文件柜，档案柜
　　* security cupboards 保险橱
　　* adjustable keyboard可调式键盘
　　* mouse 鼠标
　　* colour scanner 色彩扫描器
　　* colour printer 彩色打印机
　　* floppy discs 软盘
　　* 21-inch colour screen 21英寸彩色屏幕
　　Unit 13
　　听力译文：
　　好，下面我们来谈一下明年的目标和今后五年的计划。
　　正如大家已看到的，A1456的销售额下降已有一段时间了，去年只卖出了250000。尽管我们在3月份将进行一次大规模的促销活动，但我们估计明年的销售怦变化不会太大。如果促销成功的话，也许我们可以增加销售额，达到300000。但我还是倾向于将估计数额定为250000。
　　现在，我们再来谈一下B2456的情况。因为今年我们不打算推销该产品，我们不期望销售额会像去年那么高。我认为销售额应达到450000。也许对一种卖了一六年的产品，这有点太乐观，但我想我们应该能达到。
　　我们们相信C3456的销售将有所回升。明年，也许销售额真的会达到650000。但我将目标定得稍微低一点，定为600000。
　　现在，我们来看一下我们的中期计划。明年我们打算投放一种新产品——D4456，而且我们相信销售额将快速增长。我们估计第一年的销售额为200000，并希望在三年的时间里D4456能取代A1456。我们打算在五年后停止生产A1456。
　　最后讲一下，研究与发展部正在研制一种属蹭市场系列的新产品，他们希望能在两年内准备好，那样我们就能在三四年之内投放市场。
　　Exercises-A
　　以客观的角度改写下列句子，不要改变句子的含义。练习使用be going to /will[肯定]，should [很可能]，many/might/could[有可能]
　　eg. Their order is likely to arrive tomorrow.
　　Their order should arrive tomorrow.
　　1. I’m not sure if we will visit the new plant on the way home.
　　2. It’s likely that the goods will reach you by the end of the week.
　　3. You will probably get a good discount from the car company.
　　4. The discount is certainly to be bigger if you order over 1000 units.
　　5. The reference number is probably on the top of the page.
　　6. He’s certain to ring you up before noon tomorrow.
　　Exercises-B
　　请用括号里的词或短语，翻译下列句子。
　　1. 虽然我们将在3月份开始大规模的促销，但明年的销售情况大致不会变。(large-scale, promotion, roughly the same)
　　2. 也许明年我们能将销售额增加到300000。（perhaps, can, boost sales to）
　　3. 我们不指望销售额和去年一样高。(expect, as high as)
　　4. 我将销售目标定得稍微低了一点，定在600000。（set the target, slightly）
　　5. 明年我们打算推出新产品，确信其销量将快速增长。
　　Translation
　　不打算再推销9211型汽车了，因为明年我们将向市场投放9811型，估计销售额会大幅度增加。估计在三年内9811将会取代9211。我们打算两年内停止生产9211。9811的性能比9211好得多，价格只提高了10%-15%。明年预计能卖出5万辆9811。也许这有点过于乐观，但我想我们是能够达到这个目标的。到那时，总销售额将恢复到1995年的水平，甚至飞速增长。
　　Key to Exercises-A
　　1. We might/may visit the new plant on the way home.
　　2. The goods should reach you by the end of the week.
　　3. You should get a good discount from the car company.

　　4. The discount will be bigger if you order over1000 units.
　　5. The reference number should be at the top of the page.
　　6. He will/is going to ring you up before noon tomorrow.
　　Key to Exercises-B
　　1. We expect sales will be roughly the same next year, although we will be starting a large-scale promotion in March.
　　2. Perhaps we can boost sales to 300000 next year.
　　3. We do not expect that sales will be as high as last year.
　　4. I have se the sales target slightly lower, at 600000.
　　5. Next year we intend to launch a new product and we are sure sales will take off very quickly.
　　Key to Translation
　　We are not going to push Auto Model 9211 any longer, since we will launch Model 9811 next year, which will boost sales. We estimate in three years’ time Model 9811 will replace Model 9211. And we intend to stop production on the 9211 within two years. The 9811, at a price only 10% to 15% higher than the 9211, boasts much better performance. Thus we keep a forecast figure of 9811 at 50000 next year. This may be a little optimistic, but we believe we can make it. By that time, total sales would have recovered to the level of 1995 and might take off very soon.