Ben Bernanke, Mr Greenspan’s successor, likes to explain America’s current account deficit as the inevitable consequence of a saving glut in the rest of the world. Yet a large part of the blame lies with the Fed’s own policies, Which have allowed growth in domestic demand to outstrip supply for no less than ten years on the trot. Part of America’s current prosperity is based not on genuine gains in income, nor on high productivity growth, but on borrowing from the future. The words of Ludwig yon Mises, an Austrian economist of the early 20th century, nicely sum up the illusion: It may sometimes he expedient for a man to heat the stove with his furniture. But he should not delude himself by believing that he has discovered a wonderful new method of heating his premises.
Handovers to a new Fed chairman are always tricky moments. They have often been followed hy some sort of financial turmoil, such as the 1987 stockmarket crash, only two months after Mr Greenspanspan took over. This handover takes place with the economy in an unusually vulnerable state, thanks to its imbalances. The interest rates that Mr Bernanke will inherit will be close to neutral, neither restraininnor stimulating the economy. But America’s domestic demand needs to grow more slowly in order to bring the saving rate and the current-account deficit back to sustainable levels. If demand fails to slow, he will need to push rates higher. This will be risky, given households’ heavy debts. After 13 increases in interest rates, the tide of easy money is now flowing out, and many American households are. going to be shockingly exposed. In the words of Warren Buffett, It’s only when the tide goes out that you can see who’s swimming naked.
How should Mr Bernanke respond to falling house prices and a sharp economic slowdown when they come? While he is even more opposed than Mr Greenspan to the idea of restraining asser price bubbles. he seems just as keen to slash interest rates when bubbles burst to prevent it downturn, lie is likely to,, continue thecurrent asymmetric policy of never raising interest rates to curb rising asset prices, but always cutting fates after prices fall. This is dangerous as it encourages excessive risk taking and allows the imbalances to grow ever larger, making the eventual correction even worse. If the imbalances are to unwind, America needs to accept a period in which domestic demand grows more slowly than output.examda.
The big question is whether the rest of the world will slow too. The good news is that growth is becoming more broadly based, as demand in the euro area and Japan has been picking up, and fears about an imminent hard landing in China have faded. America kept the world going during troubled times. But now it is time for others to take the lead. [479 words]
1. America’s current prosperity can be attributed to______
A. high productivity growth,examda.
B. increased incomes of most Americans
C. far too much saving in the rest of the world
D. its extravagant lifestyle at the expense of future
2. Which of the following is compared to heating one’s premises with his furniture?
A. America’s domestic demand grows much faster than supply.
B. America’s domestic demand grows much slower than supply.
C. Americas job creation is obviously weaker than usual.
D. American incomes have increased much more slowly than ever before.
3. The imbalances of American economy______
A. result from the current-account deficit
B. result from the Federal Reserve’s policies
C. coincide with the handover to a new Fed chairman
D. are often followed by some sort of financial turmoil
4. It can be inferred from the text that in America______
A. the saving rate should be increased
B. the current-account deficit is sustainable
C. the current interest rates can help stimulate its economy
D. investors are eager to finance the current-account deficit
5. Mr Bernanke will probably manage to______
A. restrain asset-price bubbles
B. lower households’ heavy debts
C. maintain the current imbalances
D. unwind the current imbalances [NextPage]
难句透析
①Yet a large part of the blame lies with the Fed’s own policies，[which have allowed growth in domestic demand to outstrip supply for no less than ten years on the trot]．
【结构】方括号部分是“policies”的后置定语从句。“no less than”的意思是“多达”。“on the trot”的意思是“连续不断”。
【释义】然而，问题主要出在美联储自己的政策上，连续长达10年之久，允许国内需求的增长超过供给。
②Part of America’s current prosperity is based not on genuine gains in income，nor on high productivity growth， but on borrowing from the future．
【结构】“be based on”的意思是“基于”。“not…，nor…，but…”的意思是“不是…，也不是…，而是…”。
【释义】美国今天的繁荣，其部分原因，并非由于收入的真正增长，也不是由于生产力的迅速提高，而是由于今天在花未来的钱。
③It may sometimes be expedient for a man to heat the stove with his furniture．But he should not delude himself by believing[that he has discovered a wonderful new method of heating his premises]．
【结构】第一句中的“It”是形式主语，指带逻辑主语的动词不定式结构“for a man to heat…”。第二句的“he”指前一句中的“a man”。方括号部分是动名词“believin9”的宾语从句。
【释义】靠烧家具取暖有时可能管用。但是，不能自欺欺人地认为自己找到了房屋御寒的新高招。
④They have often been followed by some sort of financial turmoil，such as the l987 stockmarket crash，only two months after Mr Greenspan took over．
【结构】本句的主语“They”指前一句中的“Handovers”。
【释义】美联储主席交接，随后往往出现某种金融动荡，如l987年曾出现股市大跌，当时格林斯潘刚刚接任美联储主席只有两个月。
⑤WhiIe he is even more opposed than Mr Greenspan to the idea of restraining asset—price bubbles，he seems just as keen to slash interest rates when bubbles burst to prevent a downturn]．
【结构】本句中的“he”指前一句中的“Mr Bernanke”。“is opposed to…”的意思是“反对”。
【释义】虽然伯南克甚至比格林斯潘更不赞同抑制资产价格泡沫的主意，但是，当泡沫喷发妨碍经济降温时，他似乎同样热衷于大幅降低利率。
⑥He is likely to continue the current asymmetric policy[of never raising interest rates to curb rising asset prices， but always cutting rates(after prices fall)]．
【结构】方括号部分是后置的介词短语，修饰“policy”。介词“of”后面跟有两个动名词短语：“raising…”和“cut— ting…”。
【释义】伯南克很可能继续实行目前推行的不均衡政策，决不提高利率来控制资产价格，但是价格下降以后总要降低利率。 [NextPage]
全文翻译
格林斯潘先生的继任者本·伯南克喜欢将美国目前的现金流动账户赤字解释为是由世界其他各国过分储蓄所带来的不可避免的后果。然而，问题主要出在美联储自己的政策上，连续长达10年之久，允许国内需求的增长超过供给。美国今天的繁荣，其部分原因，并非由于收入的真正增长，也不是由于生产力的迅速提高，而是由于今天在花未来的钱。20世纪早期的一位奥地利经济学家路德维格·冯·米塞斯就曾经典地总结道：“靠烧家具取暖有时可能管用。但是，不能自欺欺人地认为自己找到了房屋御寒的新高招。”
每位新的联邦储备局主席接管的这段时间总是很难应对的。美联储主席交接，随后往往出现某种金融动荡，如1987年曾出现股市大跌，当时格林斯潘刚刚接任美联储主席只有两个月。此次交接正好处在美国经济由于自身的不平衡而最容易受冲击的时候。伯南克先生接手时的利率正处于平衡点上，既没有制约也没促进经济的发展。但美国的内需确实需要减缓发展以使得存款率和现金流动账户赤字能回复到可持续发展的水平。如果需求无法放缓增长，他就不得不将利率推到新的高度。在多数家庭都负债累累的情况下，这样做风险很大。在经历了13次加息之后，金钱易得的大潮正在退去，许多美国家庭将会暴露出其惊人的负债情况。用沃伦·巴菲特的话说，“只有潮退的时候你才能看见到底谁在裸泳。”
那么如果发生房价下跌及经济发展突然减速时伯南克先生又该怎样应对呢?虽然伯南克甚至比格林斯潘更不赞同抑制资产价格泡沫的主意，但是，当泡沫喷发妨碍经济降温时，他似乎同样热衷于大幅降低利率。伯南克很可能继续实行目前推行的不均衡政策，决不提高利率来控制资产价格，但是价格下降以后总要降低利率。这样的举动十分危险，因为它鼓励人们过度承担风险并使得经济的不平衡性持续扩大，最终再来进行调节时也将异常困难。如果需要使经济的不平衡性消退，美国必须经历一段国内需求增长低于生产增长速度的时期。
最大的问题在于世界上其他国家是否也会放缓速度。令人欣慰的消息是当代的经济增长越来越建立在更广泛的地域之上，欧元区和日本的需求都在增长，而中国经济可能在近期硬着陆的担忧也烟消云散。困难时期，美国带领各国一同走过。但现在也该是时候让别人来做领头羊了。
超纲词汇
Asymmetric adj．不均匀的，不对称的
Crash n．(行情)大跌，市场崩溃
curb vt．抑制，控制
Delude vt．欺骗，迷惑，哄骗
Expedient adj／n．有利的；权宜之计
glut n．供应过剩，充斥
Handover n．交出，移交，交班
on the trot不停地，连续地，马不停蹄地
outstrip vt．胜过，超过，优于
premises n．房屋
Slash vt．削减
Tricky adj．难处理的，棘手的，微妙的
trot n．快步，慢跑，小跑
Turmoil n．混乱，骚乱，动乱
Unwind vt．展开，放松，伸直
参考答案：1．D 2．A 3．B 4．A 5．C
