Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan laid forth the intellectual basis for the likely continued aggressive easing in monetary policy in the weeks ahead in his semi—annual monetary policy report to Congress．
The broader point in his prepared testimony is that the improved information and production controls evident in the new economy induce companies to respond more quickly and in tandem to changes in their business．①Mistakes are still made as is evidenced by the unwanted buildup of inventories at the end of last year,but any mistakes are more aggressively addressed than in the past，as is evidenced by manufacturers’recent slashing of production．
Moreover，the increasingly dramatic shifts in economic activity are particularly hard on confidence． Consumers and businesses literally freeze up due to the heightened uncertainty，and run from any Derceived risks and curtail their spending and investment． If confidence deflates by enough，then a recession will ensue．
Confidence has also been under extraordinary pressure in recent months due to surging energy prices and weaker stock prices．Higher energy bills have acted much like a tax increase，save the checks are largely being written to foreign energy producers．The lower stock prices are having a magnified impact due to the dramatic increase in stock wealth since the mid1990s．
The conduct of monetary policy must adj ust to all of this，and thus respond more quickly and aggressively than in the past in an effort to shore up confidence．This explains the dramatic and unDrecedented action(at least by a Greenspan-led Federal Reserve)to cut the federal funds rate target by 100 basis Doints in January．This also suggests that substantially more easing is on the way in the weeks ahead．Just when and by how much will depend on whether confidence continues to fall．
The chairman made a point to note that policymakers have significant latitude to ease policy aggressively since inflation remains low and tame．Despite surging energy prices，inflation and inflation expectations remain contained．
The Federal Reserve’s economic projections for this year provided as part of the testimony support this non-recessionary view．Real GDP is expected to grow by between 2％and 2．5%between the fourth quarter of 2000 and the fourth quarter of this year．Since this is below the economy’s potential；growth， the jobless rate will rise to approximately 4．5％by year’s end．Inflation will moderate somewhat in response．
Recession risks are rising and as high as they have been since the last downturn almost a decade ago, The key buffer between a soft economy and a recessionary one is confidence，and today’s testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman clearly indicates that policymakers will be as aggressive as they need to be to ensure that confidence erodes no further．④With just a bit of luck they will succeed．[464 words]
1．The new monetary policy is likely______．
A．to be more aggressive
B．to be less aggressive
C．to result in great pains
D．to be bold adj ustment
2．According to this passage，have contributed least to the deflation of confidence______．
A．surging energy prices
B．weaker stock prices
C．information controls
D．perceived recession risks
3．The new monetary policy proposed by Greenspan is most likely to succeed because______．
A．inflation remains contained
B．there has been a drastic increase in stock wealth
C．there has been a buildup of unwanted inventories
D．production controls are going to be improved
4．hardly helps prevent economic recession______．
A．People’s confidence
B．Aggressive easing in monetary policy
C．Further erosion of confidence
D．The dramatic action taken in January
5．The best title for this passage should be______．
A．New Economy
B．New Monetary Policy
C．Greenspan’s Testimony
D．The Federal Reserve’s Projections [NextPage]
难句透析
①The broader point in his prepared testimony is[that the improved information and production controls(evident in the new economy)induce companies(to respond more quickly and in tandem to changes in their business)]．
【结构】本句主句的主语是“The broader point”，谓语动词是…is；方括号标示的“that…business”是表语从句；表语从句中的主语是“controls”，谓语动词是“induce”；圆括号标示的形容词短语“evident…economy”作“con— trois”的后置定语；圆括号标示的动词不定式短语“to respond．．．t0…business”做宾语补语；“in tandem”：协同地。
【释义】在准备好的陈述中，美联储主席重点指出：新经济突出特点在于大大改善了信息和生产调控，促使公司能协同一致对生意场中的变化做出快速反应。
②”Mistakes are still made(as is evidenced by the unwanted buildup of inventories at the end of last year)，but2’any mistakes are more aggressively addressed than in the past，(as is evidenced by manufacturers’recent slashing of production)．
【结构】本句是由“but”连接的两个分句组成的并列句；每个分句中的圆括号标示的“as is evidenced by…”都是该分句中的定语从句，修饰分句的主句；其中的“as”是关系代词。
【释义】就如同上年末出现的货物积压一样，人们还在不断地犯错，但是现在对这些错误的认识要比过去严肃得多，比如说生产商们最近就大幅度地削减了产量。
③Higher energ)bills have acted much like a tax increase，save the cheeks are largely being written to foreign ener— gY producers．
【结构】句中的“save”是连词，意思是“只是，要不是”。
【释义】能源支出增多很像多纳了税，只是支票开给了国外能源生产商。
④The key buffer between a soft economy and a recessionary one is confidence，and today’S testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman clearly indimtee[-that policymakers will be as aggressive as(they need to be)to ensure(that confidence erodes no further)]．
【结构】本句是由“and”连接的两个分句组成的并列句；第一个分句的主语是“The key buffer”，谓语动词是“is”；第二个分句的主语是“today’s testimony”，谓语动词是“indicates”；方括号标示的“that policymakers…further”是“indicates”的宾语从句；圆括号标示的“that confidence erodes no further”是动词不定式“to ensure”的宾语从句。
【释义】要减缓经济疲软走向经济衰退的过程，关键在于信心。美联储主席今天的陈述清楚地表明，决策者一定要敢做敢为，确保信心不再下降。
全文翻译
在其对国会所作的年中货币政策报告中，联邦储备局主席艾伦·格林斯潘明确指出在未来几周中将要采取的强力放宽货币政策的决定具有其理论基础。
在准备好的陈述中，美联储主席重点指出：新经济突出特点在于大大改善了信息和生产调控，促使公司能协同一致对生意场中的变化做出快速反应。就如同上年末出现的货物积压一样，人们还在不断地犯错，但是现在对这些错误的认识要比过去严肃得多，比如说生产商们最近就大幅度地削减了产量。
更有甚者，经济活动中不断增加的剧烈变化也对人们的信心带来巨大挑战。消费者和商人都由于不断提高的不确定性而冻结了活动，只要预测有风险就立刻躲开并且削减了他们的消费和投资。如果人们对市场的信心缩小到一定程度，经济衰退将不可避免。
由于最近能源价格上涨以及股市疲软，几个月来人们对市场的信心也在经受着巨大压力的考验。能源支出增多很像多纳了税，只是支票开给了国外能源生产商。走低的股价也带来了不可小觑的冲击，因为自从20世纪90年代中期人们就已经习惯了股市激增所带来的财富了。
对货币政策的驾驭就必须考虑到以上所有因素，这样才能比过去更迅捷有力地提升市场信心。这也就能解释1月份时降低联邦基金利率目标达l00个基点这样戏剧性且(至少在格林斯潘领导美联储期间)前所未有的行动。这也预示着在未来的几周之内，更大幅度的政策放宽也将付诸现实。具体何时推行以及推行幅度有多大那都将取决于市场信心是否还会下降。
美联储主席特别强调，由于目前通货膨胀正处于低缓平稳的阶段。决策者们就有足够的空间来强力放宽货币政策。尽管能源价格飙升，但是现有通胀水平和未来通胀的预测都还在可掌控的水平之中。
作为其陈述的一部分，美联储对本年度经济的预测支持了这种非衰退观点。自2000年第四季度到今年第四季度，GDP净增长有望增加2％至2．5％。由于这个数字低于经济潜在的增长力，失业率有可能在本年末上升至4．5％。而通货膨胀则会相应放缓。
经济衰退的危险不断增加，并且已经接近10年前那次衰退时的风险水平。要减缓经济疲软走向经济衰退的过程，关键在于信心。美联储主席今天的陈述清楚地表明，决策者一定要敢做敢为，确保信心不再下降。④如果有那么一点幸运降临的话，他们将能成功。
超纲词汇
buffer vt．／n．缓冲；缓冲器
Curtail vt．缩减(经费)，剥夺(特权)，简略
shore up支持
deflate vi．缩小，紧缩(通货)
slash v．／n．猛砍，大量削减
tandem n．一前一后
参考答案：1．D 2．C 3．A 4．C 5．B
