2015年考研英语阅读理解考前专项训练（44）
发布时间：2012/10/31 13:12:21 来源：城市网学院 编辑：admin
During the second half of the 20th century，the global population explosion was the big demographic bogey.Robert McNamara，president of the World Bank in the l970s，#pared the threat of unmanageable population pressures with the danger of nuclear war.Now that worry has evaporated，and this century is spooking itself with the opposite fear：the onset of demographic decline.#
The shrinkage of Russia and eastern Europe is familiar，though not perhaps the scale of it：Russia's population is expected to fall by 22％between 2005 and 2050，Ukraine's by a staggerin9 43％。①Now the phenomenon is creeping into the rich world：Japan has started to shrink and others，such as Italy and Germany，will soon follow.Even China's population will be declining by the early 2030s，according to the UN，which projects that by 2050 populations will be lower than they are today in 50 countries.②
Demographic decline worries people because it is believed to go hand in hand with economic decline.At the extremes it may well be the result of economic factors：pessimism may depress the birth rate and push up rates of suicide and alcoholism.But，in the main，demographic decline is the consequence of the low fertility that generally goes with growing prosperity.In Japan，for instance，birth rates fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman in the mid-1970s and have been particularly low in the past l5 years.#
But if demographic decline is not generally a consequence of economic decline，surely it must be a cause?In a crude sense，yes.As populations shrink，GDP growth will slow.Some economies may even start to shrink，t00.The result will be a lOSS of economic influence.#
Governments hate the idea of a shrinking population because the absolute size of GDP matters for great-power status.The bigger the economy，the bigger the military，the greater the geopolitical clout： annual GDP estimates were first introduced in America il3.the l 940s as part of its war effort.③Companies worry，t00：they do not like the idea of their domestic markets shrinkin9.People should not mind， though.What matters for economic welfare is GDP per person.
People love to worry--maybe it's a symptom of ageing populations--but the gloom surrounding population declines misses the main point.The new demographics that are causing populations to age and to shrink are something to celebrate.Humanity was once caught in the trap of high fertility and high mortality.Now it has escaped into the freedom of low fertility and low mortality.Women's control over the number of children they have is an unqualified good--as is the average person'S enjoyment，in rich countries，of ten more years of life than they had in 1960.④Politicians may fear the decline of their nations'economic power。but people should celebrate the new demographics as heralding a golden age.[478 words]
1.A shrinking population may result in______
A.economic success,#
B.higher GDP growth
C.lower geopolitical influence
D.the obvious increase of efficiency
2.The second paragraph is written to ______.
A.illustrate the big demographic bogey
B.justify the #parison made by Robert McNamara
C.exemplify the potential decline of population
D.show the remarkable scale of demographic decline
3.The author believes that______may not contribute to demographic decline.
A.economic recession,#
B.economic prosperity
C.the low fertility
D.the low mortality
4.______should wel#e the new trend of population change?
A.Most governments
B.Numerous politicians
C.Few women
D.Average people
5.This passage is mainly about______.
A.population explosion
B.population shrinking
C.population pressures
D.the threat of population [NextPage] 难句透析
①The shrinkage of Russia and eastern Europe is familiar，though not perhaps the scale of it：Russia's population is expected to fall by 22％between 2005 and 2050，Ukraine's by a staggerin9 43％。#
【结构】本句中，代词“it”指“shrinkage”。“not perhaps the scale of it”相当于“the scale of it is perhaps not famil ia，。
【释义】对俄罗斯和东欧人口的减少，人们都熟悉，不过对人口减少的程度，可能就不那么熟悉了。预计从2005 年到2050年俄罗斯的人口减少22％，乌克兰的人口减少43％。
②Even China，s population will be declining by the early 2030s，according to the UN，[which projects（that by 2050 populations will be lower than they are today in 50 countries）].#
【结构】方括号所标示的后置定语从句修饰”UN“。圆括号所标示的部分是”projects“的宾语从句。其中的代词 ”they“指”populations“。
【释义】据联合国的说法，甚至中国的人口从21世纪30年代初期都要开始下降。联合国预期，到2050年，50个 国家的人口都将比现在少。
③The bigger the economy，the bigger the military，the greater the geopolitical clout：annual GDP estimates were first introduced in America in the l940s as part of its war effort.
【结构】”The bigger…，the bigger…，the greater…“的意思是”…越大，…越大，…则越大“。冒号后面的部 分是对其前面的主句的补充说明。
【释义】经济规模越大，军力越强大，则地缘政治影响越大。20世纪40年代美国最早开始评估年国内生产总值， 这是战争的一项成果。
④womens control over the number of children[they have]is an unqualified good--as is the average person's enjoyment，in rich countries，of ten more years of life than they had in l960.#
【结构】方括号所标示的后置定语从句修饰”children“。关系代词”as“引导的后置定语从句修饰”unqualified good“。
【释义】妇女能控制自己生育几个孩子绝对是件好事。在富有国家，一般人比1：960年的人能多享受10年的寿命也绝对是件好事。
⑤Politicians may fear the decline of their nations'economic prOWess，but people should celebrate the new dem0— graphics as heralding a golden age.
【结构】本句是由逗号和”but“连接的两个分句组成的并列句。
【释义】政治家可能会担心国家经济力量的下降。而人民对于人口变化的新趋势应该庆贺，因为那预兆黄金时代的到来。 [NextPage] 全文翻译
在20世纪的下半叶，全球人口大爆炸是人口统计学所推想出来的最大的恐惧。世界银行20世纪70年代的主席罗伯特。麦克纳马拉就曾把无节制增长的人口带来的压力和核战争二者放在一起比较，看是谁带来的威胁更大。现在这个忧虑已经烟消云散了，这个世纪人们所要担心的正好是相反的威胁：人口统计学的数据开始出现下滑了。
对俄罗斯和东欧人口的减少，人们都熟悉，不过对人口减少的程度，可能就不那么熟悉了。预计从2005年到2050年俄罗斯的人口减少22％，乌克兰的人口减少43％。现在这个现象也正悄悄蔓延至富裕国家：日本人口已经开始缩减，其他像意大利和德国估计也用不了多久就会这样。据联合国的说法，甚至中国的人口从21世纪30年代初期都要开始下降。联合国预期，到2050年，50个国家的人口都将比现在少。#
人口的下降使得人们忧心忡忡，关键是人们普遍认为这将会引起经济的同步衰退。发展到极端时，这也很有可能就是由经济因素引起的：悲观主义思想会负面影响到出生率并推动自杀和酗酒的大量滋生。但最主要的，人口下降是由富裕生活带来的低生育水平所引起的。比如说在日本，出生率低于70年代中期，当时的生育率为维持人口总量不变的正常替换率，平均每个妇女生育2.1个孩子；而且在过去15年当中日本生育率一直都很低。
但是，如果人口下降不是由经济衰退引发的，那它会不会反过来引发经济衰退呢？残忍一点说，会。只要一个国家的人口减少，那么它的GDP增长也将减缓。一些经济体甚至都将开始衰退。这样最终的结果是它们将失去经济影响力。#
政府最不希望看到人口减少，因为GDP的绝对总量决定着其国家力量的多寡。经济规模越大，军力越强大，则地缘政治影响越大。20世纪40年代美国最早开始评估年国内生产总值，这是战争的一项成果。公司企业也会忧虑：他们并不希望看到国内市场日渐缩减。而其实人们不用太介意。对经济福利实质上会产生影响的只有人均 GDP.人们总是爱操心——这或许是老龄化社会的症状——但是这些悲观的论点都没有抓住问题的核心。这种新的人口结构虽然引起了人群的老龄化和人口数的减少，但却是值得庆幸的。人类曾一度陷入因高生育率和高死亡率带来的双重困境中。现在其正好发展到了低生育率和低死亡率的时代。妇女能控制自己生育几个孩子绝对是件好事。在富有国家，一般人比1960年的人能多享受10年的寿命也绝对是件好事。政治家可能会担心国家经济力量的下降。而人民对于人口变化的新趋势应该庆贺，因为那预兆黄金时代的到来。
超纲词汇
bogey n.想像出来的恐惧
demographic adj.人口的，人121统计学的
Fertility n.生育力，生殖力，人口出生率
GDP abbr.（gross domestic product）国内生产总值
herald vt.预示，预报
Onset n.攻击，进攻，有力的开始
prowess n.威力
Spook vt.使害怕，惊吓
Unqualified adj.无条件的，绝对的
参考答案：1.C 2.C 3.A 4.D 5.B
