2015年考研英语阅读理解考前专项训练（130）
发布时间：2012/11/7 15:09:02 来源：城市网学院 编辑：admin
Directions：
In the following text，some sentences have been removed.For Questions l-5，choose the most suitable one from the list A--G to fit into each of the numbered blanks.There are two extra choices，which do not fit in any of the blanks.
For Bill Gates Warren Buffett and many Wall Street number-crunchers，the dollar supplied one of the nastiest surprises of 2005.The world's two richest men and most financial—market seers predicteC that the greenback would fall last year，dragged down by America's colossal current-account deficit.① Many forecasters were predicting that the euro would buy$1.40一odd by now and that a dollar would fetch less than￥100.
（1） ______.Against the euro and yen，the greenback did even better.It ended the year at$1.18 per eur0，up by l4％。Despite a wobble in December，the dollar made a similar advanc￡ against the yen.
Not surprisingly，the pundits are more cautious about 2006.Although most expect the greenback tc end this year weaker than it began it，the typical forecast is that any decline will be fairly modest and take place mainly in the latter part of 2006.
（2） ______.The Federal Reserve raised short—term interest rates eight times in 2005，t0 4.25％。Japan，in contrast，kept the liquidity taps open and interest rates at zer0，while the European Central Bank raised rates only once，in December，t0 2.25％。Relatively higher American interest rates brought foreign capital pouring into dollar assets and pushed the currency up.
（3） ______.But as America's tightening campaign levels off and European or（maybe）Japanese rates rise，the dollar will weaken.The consensus，according to a recent #pilation of forecasts by Reuters，suggests that the dollar could reach$1.25 per euro and￥108 by the end of the year.
Judged by the first few days of 2006，those forecasts may prove too sanguine.The dollar suffered its biggest two-day drop against the euro in two years，and hit a two-month low of$1.21 against the European currency on January 4th.
（4） ______.An interest—rate gap that was merely stable ought to imply a weaker dollar.According to economic theory，it is the widening of interest-rate differentials that temporarily strengthens the exchange rate.
（5） ______. Financial markets may also have be#e too obsessed with the influence of interest rates on currencies.Historically interest-rate differentials have been little more use than anything else at predicting short—term movements in exchange rates.
[A]By this logic，as long as America raises rates faster than others，the dollar will stay stron9.
[B]They were all wrong.Although America，s current—account deftcit headed towards$800 billion in 2005，the dollar rose.It was up by 3.5％against a broad trade—weighted basket of currencies.the first rise in four years.
[C]Over time，an international difference in interest rates is offset by a drop in the currency with the higher interest rate.
[D]China is yet another cause of uncertainty.Its eagerly awaited but ultimately minuscule exchange—rate shift in July 2005 was a boon for the dollar because it did not set in train a wider realignment of Asian currencies.
[E]That is because most analysts attribute the dollar's recent strength to widening differences between American，European and Japanese interest rates.These gaps are expected to grow for a few more months before closing slightly later in the year.
[F]An alternative view is that the exporters，like others，were attracted by rising American interest rates.A recent study by the Bank for International Settlements，for instance，suggested that the currency #position of OPEC members'deposits has be#e more sensitive to interest-rate differentials.
[G]One reason is that investors are be#ing jittery about how soon the interest—rate gap might stop growin9.The dollar swooned after the release this week of the minutes of the Fed's December meetin9，which suggested that short-term interest rates might not need to go much higher. [NextPage] 难句透析
①The world'S tWO richest men and most financiabmarket seers predicted[that the greenback would fall last year，（dragged down by America'S colossal current—account deficit）].
【结构】方括号所标示的部分是动词“predicted”的宾语从句，圆括号所标示的过去分词短语是宾语从句中的状语。
【释义】全世界最富有的两个人和大多数金融市场的预言家都曾预言，由于流通账目庞大赤字的拖累，美元去年会贬值。
②[Although most expect the greenback to end this year weaker than it began it]，the typical forecast is[that any decline will l'be fairly modest and“take place mainly in the latter part of 2006].
【结构】第一个方括号所标示的部分是”although“引导的让步状语从句，其中”weaker than“引导比较状语从句；”it began it“相当于”the greenback began this year“。第二个方括号所标示的部分是表语从句，其中有两个并列的谓语动词。
【释义】虽然大多数人预计，美元在今年年底要比年初疲软，不过，普遍预言，疲软程度有限，而且主要发生在2006年的后半年。
③Historically interest—rate differentials have been little more use than anything else at predicting short—term move— ments in exchange rates.
【结构】其中”little“表达否定的意思。
【释义】从历史角度看，对于预言汇率的短期变化，和任何其他因素一样，利率差异起的作用有限。
④Its eagerly awaited but ultimately minuscule exchange-rate shift in July 2005 was a boon for the dollar[because it did not set in train a wider realignment of Asian currencies].
【结构】”Its“指”China's“。方括号所标示的部分是”because“引导的原因状语从句，其中主语”it“指”shift“。
【释义】 2005年7月人民币汇率的变化是人们所急切等待的，但是最终变化极小。这个变化对美元有利，因为并没有引起亚洲货币一连串更大范围的变化。
⑤The dollar swooned after the release this week of the minutes of the Fed's December meetin9，[which suggested（that short-term interest rates might not need to go much higher）].
【结构】本句中”minute“的意思是”备忘录“，”the release…of…“的意思是”公布“。方括号所标示的后置的非限制性定语从句修饰”the minutes“，圆括号所标示的部分是动词”suggested“的宾语从句。
【释义】本周发布联邦储备局去年12月份会议的备忘录后，美元变软。备忘录表明，可能无需把短期利率提得更高。
全文翻译
对比尔·盖茨、沃伦·巴菲特以及华尔街的诸多金融家们来说，美元成了他们在2005年当中遇到的最不愉快的意外之一。全世界最富有的两个人和大多数金融市场的预言家都曾预言，由于流通账目庞大赤字的拖累，美元去年会贬值。①许多预言家都预测截至今时欧元对美元的汇率应该在1欧元兑换1.40美元附近，而1美元将只能兑换不到100日元。
（1） ______相对于欧元和日元，美元的表现更值得称道。当年年底美元报收于1.18美元兑换l欧元，升值14％。尽管在12月份出现价格波动，美元对日元也有相应的提高。
由此毫无例外地，专家们在对2006年市场的预测上都更为谨慎。虽然大多数人预计，美元在今年年底要比年初疲软，不过，普遍预言，疲软程度有限，而且主要发生在2006年的后半年。
（2） ______联邦储备局在2005年内8次提高短期利率，达到4.25％。相反地，日本保持了现金流动的畅通并保持了零利率，与此同时，欧洲央行只在12月提升了一次利率，达到2.25％。美国相对较高的利率使大量外资投入到美元资产上来，同时带动了美元增值。
（3） ______但随着美国的紧缩政策达到稳定并且欧洲或者（或许）日本的利率上扬，那么美元一样会疲软。根据路透社最近的预测总汇所做出的普查结果预示，在本年末，美元汇率可能达到l.25美元兑换1欧元以及l美元兑换l08日元。
但仅从2006年最初几天的交易情况判断，这些预测未免太过乐观。l月4日，美元遭受了两年来对欧元汇率连续两日内的最大跌幅，达到两个月以来的最低值l.21美元兑换l欧元。
（4） ______一个勉强维持平稳的利率差异应该预示着美元走向疲软。因为根据经济学原理，只有利率差异扩大才可能临时性促进汇率走高。
（5） ______ 金融市场或许也变得过于注重利率对于货币价值的影响。从历史角度看，对于预言汇率的短期变化，和任何其他因素一样，利率差异起的作用有限。
[A]照这种逻辑，只要美国提升利率的速度永远高于他国，美元就能一直保持强势。
[B]然而他们全都预计错误。尽管美国的现金流通账户赤字在2005年逼近8千亿美元，但美元却升值了。相对于一篮子与贸易挂钩的货币，美元升值了3.5％。这也是其4年来首次升值。
[C]经过一段时间之后，国际间利率差异将会由高利率货币的贬值来弥补。
[D]中国也是引起这种不确定性的原因之一。2005年7月人民币汇率的变化是人们所急切等待的，但是最终变化极小。这个变化对美元有利，因为并没有引起亚洲货币一连串更大范围的变化。
[E]这是因为分析家们将美元最近的强势归功于美国、欧洲和日本在利率方面正逐渐扩大的差异。专家们预期这样的差异在年末轻度缩减之前还会持续扩大几个月。
[F]另一种观点认为，就如同其他所有人一样，出口商们同样受到美国持续增长的利率的吸引。由国际结算银行做出的一份研究显示，0PEC成员国的储备金的现金组成也越来越受到利率差异的影响。
[G]原因之一是投资者们对于利率差异将会在什么时候停止增长持怀疑态度。本周发布联邦储备局去年12月份会议的备忘录后，美元变软。备忘录表明，可能无需把短期利率提得更高。
超纲词汇
Boon n.恩赐，恩惠，裨益
Colossal 巨大的，庞大的
Compilation n.编辑，编纂，编辑作品，汇编
cruncher 嘎吱嘎吱嚼食的人
current—account n.往来账户，往来清账，活期存款户
differential n.差额
jittery 神经过敏的，战战兢兢的
level off达到稳定
liquidity n.偿债能力，变现能力，资产变现能力，流动性
minuscule 很小的
minute n.备忘录，笔记
nasty adj.有害的，危险的
pundit n.权威人士，专家
realignment n.重新排列，再结盟
sanguine adj.乐观的，自信的。充满希望的
seer n.预言家，先知者，幻想家
swoon 减弱，逐渐消失
wobble n.价格波动
参考答案：1.B 2.E 3.A 4.C 5.C
