2015年考研英语阅读理解考前专项训练（169）
发布时间：2012/11/7 15:48:47 来源：城市网学院 编辑：admin
Forecasters who thought the economy might have turned the corner in January after a frighteningly bad December were hoping for more good news this month.They aren't getting it.
Barely halfway through February，the first few signs have some economists thinking that January's modest good news was an aberration and that the economy remains on a downward slide.
“January and December were so different that February's going to tell you a lot.”says Ethan Harris，a senior economist at Lehman Bros.“The early signs are not good.”
Retail sales，which rose in January，have fallen in February，according to Redbook numbers.So have car sales.Initial unemployment insurance claims，which fell in January，are rising again，despite a slight downtick Thursday.
Prices for bellwether #modities such as lumber and #puter chips have plummeted。a signal that demand continues to shrivel.And after roaring ahead earlier，the stock market has given up most of its gains for the year.
Just Tuesday，Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a Senate #mittee that the exceptional weakness that made December's data so grim“apparently did not continue in January.” Among other things，consumers returned to malls and auto dealers in heartening numbers.
“I'd never be so presumptuous as to second guess（Greenspan），”says Jason Trennert,managing director of International Strategy＆Investment.“But our own data suggest that whatever modest acceleration in economic activity we saw in January has started to fade.”
Trennert says what happened in January was probably just a temporary bounce sparked by milder weather and aggressive discounting by retailers.
Harris says both December and January were exaggerations and that February looks more like reality.“Really， what you have is a manufacturing recession and moderate growth in the rest of the economy。”he says.Like most analysts，Lehman Bros.is forecasting very slow growth but no recession.But economists have been revising their views a lot lately，and the indicators have been unusually confusin9—typical of a period when the economy is at a turning point.。Despite February's gloom'for example。a key gauge of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region improved slightly Thursday，as did a nadonal home builders survey.
With consumer psychology crucial to what happens next，economists are eager to see today as University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.Consumer confidence plunged from November's 107.6 level to 94.7 in January，leading Greenspan to warn that continued erosion could open the door to recession.
Though most economists expect just a slight drop for February，the downside is worrisome.Says lan Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics：“If the Michigan Survey drops 5 points（today）。we've got a real problem.”[438 words]
1.Alan Greenspan thought that______.
A.the economy might have somewhat revived in January
B.the economy remained on a downward slide in January
C.there would be no recession in February
D.there would be a slight growth in February
2.Few economists believe that______.
A.there was an obvious economic growth in December
B.there was a slight economic growth in January
C.January's economic growth was abnormaJ
D.the early economic signs for February were discouraging
3.Jason Trennert believes that what Alan Greenspan said about the economic situation______.
A.in December was hardly credible
B.in January was sensible
C.in January turned out to be wrong
D.in February was plausible
4.The economists'prediction about the future economic situation is based to a large extent on______.
A.the analysis of consumer confidence
B.the present economic situation
C.current prices for bellwether #modities
D.what Alan Greenspan has warned
5.From this passage，we learn that______.
A.the economy is unlikely to drop in February
B.the economy is likely to drop tremendously in February
C.consumer confidence accounts for nothing at all
D.the economy is at a turning point
难句透析
①Barely halfway through February，the first few signs have some economists thinkin9“[that January's modest good news was an aberration]and”[that the economy remains on a downward slide].
【结构】本句谓语动词“have”的宾语是“some economists”；现在分词短语“thinking…”是宾语补语；方括号标示的两个“that”从句是“thinking”的宾语从句。
【释义】2月份刚过半个月，就有若干迹象令经济学家想到1月份经济有所好转的消息不太正常，经济仍在下滑。
②Initial unemployment insurance claims，which fell in January，are rising again，despite a slight downtick Thursday.
【结构】本句的主语是“claims”，谓语动词是“are rising”；非限制性定语从句“which…January”修饰“claims”。
【释义】尽管星期四股票交易略低于前盘，1月份有所下降的初始失业保险申领目前又在上升。
③Prices for bellwether #modities such as lumber and #puter chips have plummeted，a signal[that demand continues to shrivel].
【结构】本句的主语是“Prices”，谓语动词是“have plummeted”；“a signal…”是后置的名词短语，补充说明主句意思；方括号标示的“that…shrivel”是“signal”的同位语从句。
【释义】诸如木材和计算机芯片这些主导商品的价格已经大幅度下降，这是需求继续萎缩的迹象。
④“I'd never be so presumptuous as to second guess（Greenspan），”says Jason Trennert，managing director of International Strategy＆Investment.“But our own data suggest[that（whatever modest acceleration in economic activity we saw in January）has started to fade].
【结构】方括号标示的”that…fade“是”suggest“的宾语从句；圆括号标示的”whatever…January“是其中的主语从句。
【释义】国际策略和投资部的总经理耶逊·特伦耐说：”我绝对不会那么主观臆断，以至于怀疑格林斯潘的说法。但是，我们自己的资料表明，无论1月份我们见到经济有多少好转，现在已经开始回落。“
⑤But economists have been revising their views a lot lately，and the indicators have been unusually confusingtypical of a period[when the economy is at a turning point].
【结构】本句是由”and“连接的两个分句组成的并列句；破折号后面的部分是对主句意思的补充说明；方括号标示的”when…point“用做后置定语从句，修饰”period“。
【释义】但是，最近经济学家一直在大幅度修正自己的观点，经济指标一直很令人困惑。这是经济转折阶段的典型特点。
⑥Consumer confidence plunged from November's 107.6 level to 94.7 in January，leading Greenspan to warn[that continued erosion could open the door to recession].
【结构】在本句中，现在分词短语”leading…recession“用做伴随情况状语；方括号标示的”that…recession“是动词不定式”to warn“的宾语从句。
【释义】 消费者的信心指数从11月份的107.6下滑到了1月份的94.7，以至格林斯潘警告说，持续信心下降可能会打开走向衰退之门 [NextPage] 全文翻译
一些预测家们认为，经过12月令人沮丧的低潮之后，1月经济将会转危为安。他们仍在期待这个月会有更好的消息。但是他们的希望会落空的。
2月份刚过半个月，就有若干迹象令经济学家想到1月份经济有所好转的消息不太正常，经济仍在下滑。
莱曼兄弟资深经济学家伊桑·哈里斯说道：“12月和1月情况很异常，2月份将会透露很多信息。早期的迹象并不是什么好征兆。”
根据红皮书调查数据来看，1月份呈上升趋势的零售销售在2月份有所下降。汽车销售面临同样局势。尽管星期四股票交易略低于前盘，1月份有所下降的初始失业保险申领目前又在上升。
诸如木材和计算机芯片这些主导商品的价格已经大幅度下降，这是需求继续萎缩的迹象。经历早期上涨之后，股市目前已经损失了全年大部分的收益。
就在星期二，联邦储备委员会主席艾伦·格林斯潘告诉某一参议员：令12月经济数据看起来如此残酷的那些“意外的缺陷”在接下来的1月份“不会再出现”。此外。听到那些振奋人心的数据后，消费者会重新返回到商场和汽车经销商那里去。
国际策略和投资部的总经理耶逊·特伦耐说：“我绝对不会那么主观臆断，以至于怀疑格林斯潘的说法。但是，我们自己的资料表明，无论1月份我们见到经济有多少好转，现在已经开始回落。”
特伦耐补充道，1月份经济的好转可能只是由于温煦的天气和零售商大规模折扣活动引起的暂时反弹。
哈里斯则认为l2月和1月的状况很是离奇，2月份看起来还算比较正常。他说：“真实的情况就是制造业的不景气还有其他经济领域的缓慢增长。”和其他预测家们看法一致，莱曼兄弟也预测经济缓慢增长但并不会止步不前。
但是，最近经济学家一直在大幅度修正自己的观点，经济指标一直很令人困惑。这是经济转折阶段的典型特点。⑤正如一个国内建筑公司调查显示，尽管2月份经济萧条，但周四费城制造行业某一关键衡量尺度却稍有提高。 由于消费者心理对经济发展趋势有着极关重要的作用，经济学家们急切地想看到今天的密歇根消费者信心指数。消费者的信心指数从11月份的107.6下滑到了1月份的94.7，以至格林斯潘警告说，持续信心下降可能会打开走向衰退之门。
尽管经济学家们期望2月份经济只是轻度的下降，但下降的底线还是令人不安。
高频经济顾问公司的伊恩·谢波德森说：“如果今天密歇根消费者信心指数下降5个百分点，我们就有大麻烦了。”
超纲词汇
Aberration n.失常
Bellwether n.系铃的公羊，前导
Downtick n.低于前盘的股票市场交易
gauge v.／n.规格，测量
Grim adj.严酷的
Hearten vt.／vi.鼓励，激励，振奋
lumber 木材
Plummet 垂直落下
Presumptuous 专横的，自以为是的
recession 衰退，不景气
Shrivel v.枯萎
参考答案：1.A 2.A 3.B 4.A 5.D
